Jumping to conclusions

Complexity together with volatility can often lead to various observations that are interpreted in multiple ways. As an organisation operating in such a context and as a decision maker working in such an organisation it is crucial that measures are taken to ensure correctness of the facts driving your actions.

Common reasons for not correctly assessing information:

• Putting to much weight at a small set of observations, although it might seem logical and multiple observations point to the same causality there is always a risk of independent random events being the source.
• Premature analysis in an effort to act faster, not waiting to gather enough data is always tempting.
• Systematic errors in the gathering of data causing bias is frequently distorting data.
• Misinterpreting counter intuitive results (eg: Simpson's paradox)

While every decision maker is not required to be a data analyst or mathematical statistician one of the worst and still common flaws is to neglect input from the people who actually did the maths. Treating something as less important because of lack of understanding is and not taking the time to try to understand has been the root cause of many severe mistakes.

Enjoy this clip from Life of Brian on the theme: